In through the nose, out through the mouth.  In through the nose, out through the mouth...

There are times when being a writer can get you in trouble, where the creativity you (god willing) possess can work against you. 

This is one of those times. 

The Cards- my Cards, the best team in the NL and possibly in baseball (do we really buy the White Sox?  For sure?  Gun to the head, put your money on the table, are you taking the pale hose?  Carl Everett doesn't believe in gays, and I don't believe in the Sox) currently sit 10 1/2 games up in the NL Central.  They have one of the two or three best starting staffs in baseball, arguably the best.  They're solid defensively, pure professionals, and play with only one goal- to win the World Series. 

They're also more beat up than Mike Tyson.

Seriously, when the Dodgers look at you saying, "Man, they've got some serious injury problems," you know it's out of control.  Molina, Sanders, Rolen, and now Walker are all on the DL.  Edmonds has missed some time, and really needs to rest every fifth day if he's going to be healthy for the playoffs.  Even Albert Pujols needs a breather.  That's like saying the Terminator could use a day off, but it seems to be the case (that stretch where he played left field with one arm- two years ago, I believe- made many of us forget he was human). 

So now the Redbirds, who had suspicious OF depth to begin with, have all hands on deck trying to get through this stretch, with a lineup that went from fantasy gold to fantasy "When did Tony Graffanino get in my lineup?" level.  Meanwhile, the Astros (who I believe I buried a couple months ago- my bad!) have won 198 consecutive games, and are right back in the thick of things, as far as the Wild Card goes.  And here's where the imagination kicks in.  With their current problems, it's not out of the question for the Cards to limp along at .500, or even a slightly lower clip, for the next 20 games or so.  One more injury could make that even worse.  Now if Houston continues playing .667 or better over their next 60 games- very tough, yes, but not hard to picture the way they've been going- that'll eat up the cushion pretty quick. 

If nobody were playing well in the division, I wouldn't worry.  Let Sanders, Walker, and Rolen sit until September 1, give them a month to get back in shape, and we're all good to go for October.  Now what I have is the same feeling I get when I'm flying.  I sit down, the plane takes off, and then every bump makes me think I'm auditioning for the 2nd season of Lost, except I know I'll be one of the guys ****** out the back of the plane because only models and former hobbits were allowed to get on that island.  My brain tells me everything is fine, that I have a better chance of being struck by lightning in sunny SoCal than I do dying in a plane crash.

But there's always that overactive imagination.  So while it should be a smooth ride into October, I'm gonna leave my seat belt fastened, my seat back up, and my tray table stowed.  Just in case it gets a little bumpy. 

It's deadline season, and the big prize- at least among the players with a real chance of going anywhere- is AJ Burnett.  Sure, he's good, but as the top guy out there, he'll come at a high price and may bring along big salaried Mike Lowell with him.  If I'm the Sox, is he a guy who would make me want to give up Bronson Arroyo and a couple of prospects?  Straight up, sure, but would you overpay?  Is he the difference maker, or is this a deal done more for appearance?  Danys Baez could help some teams, but I'm always suspicious of relievers on bad teams.  Billy Wagner would be great, but will the Phillies move him?  I'd take a flier on Tom Glavine if I really needed an arm, but I wouldn't give up much to do it (and the Mets would have to toss in some cash). 

In short, the trade market is nearly as appealing as Hoth in winter.  Cold, threatening, full of creatures trying to inflict damage, and with little potential for growth.   

So here's what I propose.  Forget looking in conventional markets.  Teams have needs, they should think outside the box and try to fill them.  So with that in mind, here are my propositions for teams in need:

Washington- When your GM is trying to talk Barry Larkin out of retirement, that's bad.  Very, very bad.  Despite the Preston Wilson deal, the Nats still need O if their improbable run to the playoffs is going to pan out.  If you believe the Reds and Adam Dunn isn't available, there are no really big sticks out there, but there is plenty of offense.  My recommendations?  Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson, of former Pistons fame.  He was my favorite growing up, mostly because I thought "Microwave" was a really cool nickname.  Dude was instant offense.   Or, if nothing else, pry T.O. off the Eagles.  Failing that, maybe Howard Stern.  Lord knows plenty of people in Washington find him offensive.

NY Yankees- Cano and Wang put them on the right track, but they still need youth, and they need it bad.  Picking up Al Leiter, while a no risk move, doesn't exactly address that problem.  My choice?  Sammi Kraft, star of the "Bad News Bears" remake.  She throws a legit 70 mph with movement, brings a Michelle Wie excitement to the roster, and because she's only 13 or so, Sammi could singlehandedly bring down the average age on the Yanks roster to 84.4.  And now that I'm thinking about it, do you think Michelle Wie could hit a curveball?

Chicago White Sox- This one is tricky.  what does the team with the baseball's best record need?  And don't say one more starter or a dominating closer.  Please.  They need to make a trade for some respect.  Think about it.  The Sox are better than any team in baseball, and they're way better than the Cubs.  Still, the Cubs pack Wrigley at 98.2%, while the Sox can barely manage to keep US Cellular 2/3 full.  That's weak, and why St. Louis fans are better.  If the Browns were in first place, people would show up.  Can you actually trade for human beings on the street?  Don't know.  But Kenny Williams is a smart guy.  I'd say that Vizcaino, Contrares, and a player to be named for 50,000 or so of Chicagoland's finest baseball fans ought to do it. 

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Finally, not that he needs my help, but I'd like to finish by plugging the blog of ESPN's Buster Olney.  If you, by chance, have never read it (why, why, why are you not?), not only does he give solid insight into the world of MLB, but best of all, Olney sets up links to articles around the country, allowing easy access to good stories from cities you probably don't live in.  Excellent stuff and a great resource for all fans.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/magazine/magBlog?id=1961791

-First, to my Cardinals who put a smackdown on previously-red-hot Astros, putting the kabosh on any division hopes (far fetched as they might have been) with a sweep in St. Louis this weekend.  If Houston had done the same, they'd have trimmed the Cardinals lead to 8.5.  Probably not close enough to do damage, but enough to get the Baseball Tonight crew talking... at least for a minute or two. 

-In four years of high school football, I don't think I ever executed a perfect form tackle.  I have now seen Kyle Farnsworth do it twice as a major league pitcher.  That's pretty impressive.

-To Al Leiter, for briefly solving the Yankees pitching woes and pulling them to within a 1/2 game of the Sox.  While I don't think Leiter is a long term answer, I'm impressed the Yankees managed to pull off a no-brainer acquisition.  For a nothing risker than couple million, they can find out if Leiter still has something in the tank.  If I had to guess, he's got a few quality starts left in him, but a few more pastings.  I can't see why he'd move to the AL and start mowing through opposing lineups.  But the guy was good in the past, and with Wang, Pavano, and Brown on the DL, it's not like the pinstripes have a ton of options (Henn?  Redding?  May?).  No harm no foul.

      Either way, it's becoming clear that neither the Sox nor the Yankees are the favorites in the AL.  That the Sox, with the Yankees scuffling all year and only 8 games above .500, haven't opened a bigger lead doesn't exactly inspire confidence (Maybe I'm just worried because I recently predicted a Sox/Cards rematch- with a happier ending for me- in a recent interview and column).

-The Arizona Diamondbacks, who have somehow managed to stay competitive enough to make the NL West interesting in a Surgery Channel way.  It's gross, but oddly compelling.  Yesterday's win in San Diego puts them 5 1/2 out.  ****, even the Dodgers, baseball's answer to the Surgery Channel, still have a shot.  This reminds me of the old Norris Division in hockey, without the violence. 

People aren't watching the All Star Game anymore.

Shocker.

The Nielsons are out for Tuesday's extravaganza in Motown, and the news wasn't good for Bud Selig, or Fox Sports for that matter, as viewership was down about 8%.  That's 8% worse than the record low viewership of last season's game.  And I'm one of those fans that has stopped tuning in.  Granted, this year it was work that kept me from watching all but the first couple innings (I was covering a bunch of the pre-ESPY hoopla), but honestly, if I were home I probably wouldn't have watched.  Or at least not very closely.  Why? 

All Star games are lame. 

The only one that really comes close to being good is the NBA version.  Lots of scoring, a bunch of flash, and serious athleticism on display.  It's a time to show off, and the players take full advantage.  Hockey (remember hockey?) isn't bad, but as a former stay at home defenseman for whom a hat trick was a yearly goal total I find no joy in watching the world's best defensemen ole the world's best forwards so they can use the world's best goalies for target practice. 

The NFL, of course, has the Pro Bowl, a glorified touch football game played in uniforms that make those threads the White Sox wore with the collars and shorts look like pure GQ. 

Allowing myself to skip over the WNBA All Star Game- did you know it just happened?- that leaves MLB.  While there's no question that the cockeyed plan to make the game matter (I've railed against the home field advantage thing too many times to do it again), or Fox's insistence that it does ("This time, it counts," or whatever the tagline is), the fact remains that Tuesday's game, like all other All Star games, don't.  They just don't matter.  That Miguel Tejada sent a John Smoltz pitch into orbit in an exhibition game was fun to see, but it's not like it means that Tejada has Smoltz's number, or will dominate him if they should meet in the Series (which they won't). 

The game itself is pretty boring.  There's no flow, as in basketball or hockey, and the constant lineup and pitching changes make it impossible to get a bead on what's going on in the game and if by some miracle it has any real meaning.  Now, a ten game series between the All Star teams, played straight up with reserves, relievers, and starters who actually throw starters innings?  That I'd watch.  It would be a series of 10 TiVO moments of the highest quality. 

The irony is that the process for picking the teams- debating who deserves to go and who doesn't, who should start on the mound, etc.- all that is great.  It gets into all the arguements that make baseball great.  Who has the better stats?  How much do stats mean?  Should past accomplishments be a factor?   Who, really, are the best players in baseball?  Honestly, if they just had a voting process and selected a team but never played the game, I'd be fine, as would a growing percentage of my fellow Americans, if you believe TV ratings.

I'm not entirely sure what I predicted at the beginning of the season.  I don't remember writing anything down, and if I did, I can't figure out where I put the paper.  So I may not be able to make any of those bold, "You may remember that I predicted __________, and you can see I was exactly right!"  Or at least not accurately.   

Like that'll stop me.

WHAT I PREDICTED AND HOW I DID:

Things I got right-

The Cardinals would run away with the Central- This one I'm sure about, and not because I make the same that every year (although there are times- say most of the early 90's- when I didn't believe it).  And I said it before I knew for sure that the Cubs pitching staff would disappear faster than Skeet Ulrich.  In fairness, it was also before I knew Derrick Lee would somehow channel the spirit of Babe Ruth, so I'm calling it a wash. 

The Padres would win the West- Hey, look what one good month in the NL west will do!  .500 the rest of the way could very well be enough for San Diego to take the division.  Unfortunately for those of for whom geography means we face constant exposure to this train wreck of a division (worse than the NL Central.  Think about that)  .450 the rest of the way could win it as well. 

The Angels would take the West- Vlad, Bartolo, Erstad, G.A., K-Rod, Washburn.  Toss in solid performances by Paul Byrd (got that right!), and a good enough John Lackey, and this one is like shooting fish in a barrell.  Imagine how good they'll be when Cabrera and Finley start playing like Cabrera and Finley.

Things I'm pretty sure I got wrong-

What's the deal with the Florida Marlins?-  I mean, seriously, what is the deal with the Florida Marlins?

Did I pick Boston or the Yankees to win the East?-  Honestly, I don't remember.  It's not that I'm unwilling to admit when I'm wrong (Seriously, what is the deal with the Florida Marlins?), I just can't figure out what I predicted.  The good news is I know that I said whoever didn't win the division would take the AL Wild Card.  Because I'm a sports journalist who's willing to go out on a limb and make bold preseason predictions.

The Chicago White Sox have screwed everything up-  After a slow start, the Indians are finally showing me the love that I was giving them at the beginning of the season.  Except there was nothing in my crystal ball that said Jon Garland, and Dustin Hermanson would sell their souls to Satan, and the Sox would be 9 million games up on the Tribe.  In fact, it's very possible the entire team has put their afterlife on the open market.  Nobody in the regular lineup is hitting over .300.  They've only had a couple real run producers for most of the year- although Frank Thomas' return seems to be helping in that regard, and Carl Everett apparently doesn't believe in ***********.  Or homosexual dinosaurs, for that matter.  That's an unusual recipe for success.   

What I know I got wrong- 

The Washington Nationals- Yeah, I thought the Nats could finish .500 (actually documented on this site!), but 16 games over .500 at the break?  Still, it's really cool to be wrong sometimes. 

The Dodgers would be competitive-  Of course, I didn't know Dodger Stadium had it's own fleet of black cats and broken mirrors, either. 

Houston would ****- That one looked good for a while. 

The Rockies would win the World Series-  Just kidding. 

Next time- My Fearless 2nd Half Predictions!!!!!

Don't look now, but Moneyball is back. 

The Oakland A's have won seemingly every game they've played since early June, and now find themselves in the hunt for the AL Wild Card.  The offense has come alive, and the pitching has been as staunch as any A's team of recent memory.  I'm happy to see it, too, because I'm not ashamed to admit I'm a fan of Billy Beane and how he runs his team (and as an added bonus, every game they win makes it less likely that George Stienbrenner can buy Mark Kotsay).  Here's a guy who consistently has taken low payroll teams where stars defect to chase dollars faster than Anna Nicole Smith, and has made them competitive year in and year out. 

This season, after the A's traded away Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, the vultures were thick above the Coliseum, waiting for Beane's big experiment to fail.  They seemingly got their wish at the beginning of the season, when injuries and terrible offensive slumps conspired against Oakland and contributed to a horrendous start.  Finally, people could expose Beane as a fraud, carried by the success of the Big Three more than any philosophy.  So much of this comes from the publication of Moneyball, a book roundly criticized by many baseball people (like Joe Morgan, who continues to assail the theories and concepts described in the book despite, to my knowledge, never having read it).  Baseball can't be boiled down to computer numbers and OBP, they said.  It's still a game with soul, and Beane has none.

But those people completely miss the point.  The theories of Moneyball aren't rigid- "We only take guys with high OBP, guys who hit home runs, and guys who make consistent contact, and we don't care about defense."  It goes way beyond that.  Moneyball is about maximizing every dollar spent by maximizing value.  That happens when players who have positive skills that are undervalued on the open market can be brought in to contribute.  Sometimes the skill being undervalued is OBP, sometimes it's strikeouts to waks, sometimes it's defense.  And it doesn't mean that a player who contributes in many areas and will cost money, as Kotsay will next season, can't stay because he's expensive.  If his value in creating and taking away runs is equal to or greater the amount of money he makes and the percentage of payroll he eats, than he's a bargain, relatively speaking.  The same can be said for how Theo Epstein in Boston.  Despite the large payroll, many of Moneyball's tenants can be adhered to.  Paying guys like Schilling, Manny, and Ortiz makes sense, because they provide value.  Paying Jaret Wright in New York doesn't, because he doesn't.  There are plenty of guys who can do what he does, at a far smaller price.

That's what I respect most about Beane's philosphy.  It can move teams beyond throwing cash at players with name value, simply because GMs and fans are more comfortable with them.  If two players can replace the offense of one at a price that allows a team to add five more parts, that's a good deal, even if you need a media guide to figure out who they are.  Beane took a chance by trading Hudson and Mulder, but it was a calculated risk at worst based on the prospects he got in return.  Danny Haren has been great, and Kiko Calero has been lights out since returning from injury, and Deric Barton is doing well in the minors.  As for the Hudson deal, Thomas and Cruz have been useless, but it's too early to call Dan Meyer a bust.  With time, he could become the solid pitcher he's projected to be.  Meanwhile, with Street, Blanton, Duchscherer, Beane has quickly recreated a solid pitching core that should keep the A's competitive for a while.  The defense isn't nearly as bad as it used to be, while the offense is quietly improving around Eric Chavez, Bobby Crosby, and Kotsay. 

I don't think the A's will be able to jump over the batch of teams in front of them.  Cleveland and Minnesota are quality, and there are those pesky fellas in New York.  But it's not out of the question, if the pitching continues to thrive and Chavez plays like he should.  Either way, the 2nd half should provide a lot of encouragement for fans by the bay, and more than that, it should force critics of Billy Beane to bite their lips, even if they start to bleed.