Today, as usual, in an effort to find something interesting to say, I found myself trolling through the work of guys who are actually good at what they do for a living. 

Never fails.

Today, I found it in Rob Neyer's column on ESPN.com, where a reader (it helps to have readers!) sent him a link to what may be the most fun baseball sight ever... www.coolstandings.com. Using some computerized formula that I am unprepared to explain, it figures out the mathematical likelihood that your team will win their division, take the Wild Card, or in the case of Oakland and Anaheim (sorry, Los Angeles... still haven't got that right), either one. 

For example, the Red Sox, who woke up Tuesday with a 1.5 game lead on the Yankees, have reason to smile.  With their 59.9% chance of taking the East, and nearly 74% chance of making the playoffs, why shouldn't they?  Anyone would take these odds in Texas Hold 'Em, right?  Sure, they're not as solid as Atlanta and their 96.9 chance of a playoff birth, or the White Sox, sitting pretty at 98.7% (Which should put an end to all the talk of the ChiSox blowing the lead in the Central.  I'll go ahead and say it.  They'll limp in, flirting with losing the lead to the Indians, and then bow out so quietly you'll think they all grew up in a library.).  And nobody is as solid as my Redbirds, a 100% mortal lock to make the playoffs... and a slightly more tenuous 99.9% favorite to take the Central. 

Are the calculations accurate?  Well, according to them, the Orioles are out of contention, so how bad could they be? 

Actually, they seem to really cover their bases, giving fans a choice of two types of standings- "smart" and "dumb" (love that!).  Rather than type out the explanation, I'll give you the link:  http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp.

To paraphrase, "dumb" mode assumes a 50/50 chance of one team beating another, no matter who the teams are, while "smart" mode takes into consideration all those Sabermetricesque stats that are creepily accurate and interesting.  That explains why, despite being tied in the NL West this morning, the Dodgers have an 11.8% of winning the division, while the Diamondbacks are slogging along at 2.9%.  By most measurements, the Dodgers are a less terrible team, have 2 games in hand on Arizona, and a slightly easier schedule and an extra game against the Pads. 

(Editor's Note:  I could be miles off in my understanding of why the computer says the Dodgers have a better shot.  I'm just making assumptions.  Thought I'd put that out there...)

Even more fun is to go back in time, and see how the standings have evolved (for example, on August 10 the ChiSox were 99.5% near locks to take the Central, and while the lead has shrunk considerably, it's interesting to note that the percentage hasn't since the pool of games is also smaller).  Who's made big progress, who hasn't? 

Anyway, it's a fun site, pretty interesting.  Check it out if you get a chance.  After all, it's always good to know if you really need to start putting money aside for playoff tickets. 

St. Louisans can save with impunity. 

I was planning on doing this whole deal where I'd rank the prospects of every potential playoff team (even the ones on the fringes) to win the World Series, but then I realized I'd have to spend too much time on the rest of the NL West (for example, the Giants out of necessity mind you, have been forced to print playoff tickets on the odd chance they make it to the top of the division.  They're 15 games under .500 and 7 games out... and management was right.  The division is so bad that one 15-3 streak could have them at the top.  I can't focus energy on that sort of division). 

So in a nutshell, here it is:  Everyone has issues, and there's no team I see as a dominating force heading into the playoffs.  There are some teams that won't make it anyway, so analyzing their chances is a waste: Washington (sad but true), the Dodgers (though they could be interesting for the rest of the year, just for different reasons), Toronto (wait until next year, when the money starts flowing!), Milwaukee (am I the last one to notice they're somehow only 5.5 back in the wild card?), NY Mets (weakest pitching staff among the NL Wild Card contenders, especially if Pedro pitches every 6th day, plus too many injuries on O), Minnesota (too little O, even if they've got a good staff)...

...and the New York Yankees (I'm not buying what Jared Wright is selling, Randy Johnson finally seems 42. Everything about them this year screams "something is just wrong enough for us to make the playoffs.")

If I were a playoff team, I'd be scared of Houston, Florida, and Oakland in the 1st round, just because on any given night the one run they score might be enough to win.  As for Cleveland, the way their staff is coming together, they're not far behind in that group, and they have more mash potential than any of the other three.  All four teams could make noise in the playoffs.

As for division leaders, the last 2 weeks have shown the White Sox are vulnerable, the Red variety still have major pitching staff issues, The Cardinals batted So Taguchi in the cleanup spot due to injuries, and the Angels, outside of Vlad and Figgins, have some dead spots in their lineup.  All in all, it's pretty wide open.  (I'm still sticking to Red Sox vs. Cards in the World Series)

But forget all that.  While I was trying to find the dirt on those teams, I missed yesterday's most important news:  Julio Franco turned 6000.  Okay, 47, but still... 47!  I play in a Sunday men's 28 and over hardball league, and there aren't that many dudes in that league that are 47.  And he's still productive.  Plenty of teams would take what he's given Atlanta this season- 9 HR, 40 RBI, .298 in only 188 AB's. 

I'll forgive myself for not remembering that Franco broke in with Philly in '82 as a shortstop (a freakin' shortstop!), because I was not even 7 when it happened.  There's a lot I don't remember about the early days of the Reagan administration, too.  Plus, the dude got his first hit of Bob Forsch.  Bob Forsch, who incidently was my brother's favorite player... when he was 12!  Nobody currently active in the majors should have gotten their first base knock off Bob Forsch.  Joanie Loves Chachi was still on tv.  Really, everything I currently watch for kitch value on TV Land was actually on the air in 1982. 

I do remember when he won a batting title (and stole 36 bases!) at age 32 in 1991... go ahead and get a handle on the math for that one for a minute. 

Julio says he wants to play until he's 50.  Personally, I believe if there are still jobs for Carlos Baerga and most of the San Francisco Giants roster, there's plenty of room for this guy over the next 3 years.  Honestly, I want him to play until he's 500.  And he might.  After all, if he were a lefthanded reliever, he could play forever.

So happy belated birthday Julio!  Keep up the good work.

I was going to kick off today's entry making fun of the Royals by describing all the things that have happened to me and the world since they last won a game (because really, who wouldn't want to know exactly what I've been up to?).  But the problem is, I can't rememeber what I was doing on Wednesday, July 27, when a 6-5 victory over the White Sox capped off a hot streak of 4 wins in 6 games, and pulled the Royals tantilizingly close in the AL Central (those 18 game losing streaks will knock you back a ways...)

Unfortunately, the cold slap of reality is... I have no idea what I was doing on the 27th, or most of the days after that.   Of course, I doubt the Royals do, either.  What's interesting to me is the psychology of the whole thing.  The Royals have been terrible all year, with fits and starts of competence thrown in here and there just to keep things interesting.  I doubt from a baseball standpoint they've been substantially worse during this stretch than they have over any 18 game stretch earlier in the year.  They've lost some heartbreakers (including 7 games by 1 or 2 runs) and some laughers (a 16-1 blowout followed by an 11-0 pasting at home against Oakland). 

The rest have been typical Royals games.  They just lose, and nobody really notices because that's what they're supposed to do.  How many people do you think paid attention to this streak until it reached double digits?  "The Royals have lost six in a row" sounds eerily similar to "the sun rose in the east this morning" in the pantheon of attention grabbing statements.  Now, "Kansas City has won five in a row!" is likely to cause panic along the lines of yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater.  Five in a row?  That's when you start checking the skies for rolling clouds and shrouded guys on horseback. 

I'd love to have been in the clubhouse, too, on the day the Royals realized they had something special going.  Was it at 10 games?  14?  Is there even a little bit of pride in what they're doing?  Assuming everyone is trying their best and not tanking- though with KC's roster, it might be hard to tell the difference- it's almost impossible for a major league team, or even a AAA team playing against major leaguers, to lose 18 games in a row.  You win one on accident.  The other team kicks the ball around.  Five flares fall in for base hits, which combined with 2 wild pitches give your team 3 cheap runs.  On Sportscenter, people talk about how bad the other team was, and how they lost the game.  Your squad had nothing to do with it.  To me, it's amazing the Royals haven't had one of those yet.  18 games in a row.  That's pretty impressive. 

Just as a capper, Rob Neyer wrote in his column for ESPN.com that he doesn't think the Royals could lose the rest of their games and finish with 124 losses.  But wouldn't it be cool if they did?  If you're gonna ****, ********. 

You can make an arguement that the Royals are finally taking pride in what they do.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the state... 

Mark Mulder's shutout of the D-Backs last night has me smiling.  Every time he pitches well, it makes me think the Cards have that much more of a shot to take the series.  Walker is on his way back, as is Reggie Sanders.  There's no need to rush.  As long as both get a couple weeks worth of AB's before the playoffs, all will be well with them.

Unfortunately, the same can't be said for Scott Rolen.  It's never a good sign when after about three months of rehab and inactivity (with 87 AB's tossed in between) a body part actually seems to be getting worse, not better.  That's the deal with Rolen.  According to the Post Dispatch online, there's now a good chance Rolen could miss the rest of the season and the postseason.  If I had to make a prediction, I'd say he's done.  I just don't think they'd speak in these terms unless they knew.  Every quote sounds like the speaker is holding out hope, but you can almost sense the tone, quiet and with head hung as if talking about a terminally sick relative. 

That means the Cards are in the Abraham Nunez business.  Dude's been amazing, but having to use him in the every day lineup makes the Cards significantly weaker.  Even if Rolen can't hit, he saves games with his glove.  Nunez isn't a hack, but he won't do much of that.  Plus, when he's on the bench, the whole team is stronger.  And we all remember what seemed to happen to the Cards the last time Rolen missed the playoffs.  Ugliness.

Maybe there's something out there, where Walt Jocketty can make a waiver deal for some help.  Even if it just bolsters the bench, hefting up the spot vacated by Nunez when he moved into the lineup.  Something.  Anything.  Just so I can sleep a little easier, you know?   

Growing up in St. Louis, the closest I ever got to watching Gene Mauch was the '86 ALCS, the one that forever linked Dave Henderson to Donnie Moore and tragedy.  I remember watching that game and that series.  Around September 15 of every season I about the Cardinals team that caught Mauch's Phillies, overcoming a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 games left.  I never met him, spoke to him, covered a team that played one of his, or (outside of the playoffs or occasional Game of the Week), watched his teams play on tv.  I couldn't tell you a word about his managerial style outside of what I've read today in articles honoring his life.

But I know who he is, I know what he did, and though it was in the tiniest of ways, his life overlapped with mine. 

Baseball is a long game.  It's history is long, it's season is long, it's games are long.  That length can be a curse, as anyone who has suffered through an August game in Tampa can tell you.  But that same length gives the game what makes it most special.  Context and history.  My brother (ak.mlblogs.com) has never been the baseball fan that I have.  I played the game longer and more often than he did, I've always taken stats more seriously.  Honestly, I can't remember ever seeing him hold a baseball card (Recently, I found a pile of cards I'd set aside as potential winners down the road.  Seriously, I must have saved every freakin' rookie card on the planet, no matter how useless.  I had four Van Snyder rookie cards.  Van Snyder doesn't have four Van Snyder rookie cards).  But he still signpost the 80's based on what the Cardinals were doing and who was on the team.  That and which John Hughes movie came out that year. 

Length is what allows the game to wind itself into the national fabric the way it does.  It's what allows broadcasters to tell stories to fans, fathers to tell stories to their kids.  Every 15 second gap between pitches is a chance to learn about a player.  Every minute and a half between innings is a chance to learn about a season.  Time enough to teach someone to keep the book.  Length is what makes a boring game in May exciting in October.  It's what makes baseball often more interesting to talk about as in intellectual exercise than watch on tv.  All at once length is why no sport will ever be so fundamental a part of American life and why kids seem to be leaving it at the same time.  Take a kid to a hockey game.  They may get hooked on the sport- there isn't a better one to watch- but they won't sense the history.  There's no time to explain it. 

Congratulations to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have surfed the wave of a two game winning streak into first place in the NL West.  That's right, your 52-55 Arizona Diamondbacks have zoomed past the San Diego Padres, and if the playoffs started today (which would be totally unfair, actually) they'd be off to St. Louis to face the Cardinals in the Wild Card.

If the NL West were a network sitcom, it would be cancelled.  If it were a politician, it would be impeached.  If it were a cockroach-- well, actually, it may be a cockroach.  Nobody wants to see it, it doesn't do much good for anyone, and you'd just as soon step on it and put the **** thing out if its misery.  How bad is it?  The Pads won 8 times in July, and lost a grand total of 2 games on the Dodgers, and 4 on the Giants.  Only the D-Backs, who cobbled together a *******' 13 win month, managed to make up a bunch of ground.

Really, in what other division could the Giants, at 14 games under .500, make a deadline deal (acquiring Randy Winn from the M's for a clubhouse subscription to FHM), with the idea of making a run at the division... and actually have a chance of making it work?  Pretend for a minute you were one of the teams in the NL East, where nobody is currently under .500.  Never before has every team in a division won more than they've lost.  You're part of history.  Great!  One look out west would make you want to pull a Ron Artest.  It's the NL East in Bizarro World. Omar Minaya must be freaking out.  All that money on Pedro and Beltran?  What they should have done was save their cash and move to Portland.   

Maybe I'm just angry because the Padres, with their fantastic June that set me up to look smart for thinking they'd be good, and set them up to leave the rest of the division in the rear view mirror, have lied to me. 

Even the Royals must be annoyed.  They're actually one game better than the Rockies, but are a full 30 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central.  Colorado, meanwhile, has won barely a third of their games, and if they managed to rip off 9 of 11, 11 of 13 (stop laughing!) they'd be right back in it.  That's just stupid.

But, then again, so is the NL West.