www.coolstandings.com

Today, as usual, in an effort to find something interesting to say, I found myself trolling through the work of guys who are actually good at what they do for a living. 

Never fails.

Today, I found it in Rob Neyer's column on ESPN.com, where a reader (it helps to have readers!) sent him a link to what may be the most fun baseball sight ever... www.coolstandings.com. Using some computerized formula that I am unprepared to explain, it figures out the mathematical likelihood that your team will win their division, take the Wild Card, or in the case of Oakland and Anaheim (sorry, Los Angeles... still haven't got that right), either one. 

For example, the Red Sox, who woke up Tuesday with a 1.5 game lead on the Yankees, have reason to smile.  With their 59.9% chance of taking the East, and nearly 74% chance of making the playoffs, why shouldn't they?  Anyone would take these odds in Texas Hold 'Em, right?  Sure, they're not as solid as Atlanta and their 96.9 chance of a playoff birth, or the White Sox, sitting pretty at 98.7% (Which should put an end to all the talk of the ChiSox blowing the lead in the Central.  I'll go ahead and say it.  They'll limp in, flirting with losing the lead to the Indians, and then bow out so quietly you'll think they all grew up in a library.).  And nobody is as solid as my Redbirds, a 100% mortal lock to make the playoffs... and a slightly more tenuous 99.9% favorite to take the Central. 

Are the calculations accurate?  Well, according to them, the Orioles are out of contention, so how bad could they be? 

Actually, they seem to really cover their bases, giving fans a choice of two types of standings- "smart" and "dumb" (love that!).  Rather than type out the explanation, I'll give you the link:  http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp.

To paraphrase, "dumb" mode assumes a 50/50 chance of one team beating another, no matter who the teams are, while "smart" mode takes into consideration all those Sabermetricesque stats that are creepily accurate and interesting.  That explains why, despite being tied in the NL West this morning, the Dodgers have an 11.8% of winning the division, while the Diamondbacks are slogging along at 2.9%.  By most measurements, the Dodgers are a less terrible team, have 2 games in hand on Arizona, and a slightly easier schedule and an extra game against the Pads. 

(Editor's Note:  I could be miles off in my understanding of why the computer says the Dodgers have a better shot.  I'm just making assumptions.  Thought I'd put that out there...)

Even more fun is to go back in time, and see how the standings have evolved (for example, on August 10 the ChiSox were 99.5% near locks to take the Central, and while the lead has shrunk considerably, it's interesting to note that the percentage hasn't since the pool of games is also smaller).  Who's made big progress, who hasn't? 

Anyway, it's a fun site, pretty interesting.  Check it out if you get a chance.  After all, it's always good to know if you really need to start putting money aside for playoff tickets. 

St. Louisans can save with impunity.