Today, as usual, in an effort to find something interesting to say, I found myself trolling through the work of guys who are actually good at what they do for a living. 

Never fails.

Today, I found it in Rob Neyer’s column on ESPN.com, where a reader (it helps to have readers!) sent him a link to what may be the most fun baseball sight ever… www.coolstandings.com. Using some computerized formula that I am unprepared to explain, it figures out the mathematical likelihood that your team will win their division, take the Wild Card, or in the case of Oakland and Anaheim (sorry, Los Angeles… still haven’t got that right), either one. 

For example, the Red Sox, who woke up Tuesday with a 1.5 game lead on the Yankees, have reason to smile.  With their 59.9% chance of taking the East, and nearly 74% chance of making the playoffs, why shouldn’t they?  Anyone would take these odds in Texas Hold ‘Em, right?  Sure, they’re not as solid as Atlanta and their 96.9 chance of a playoff birth, or the White Sox, sitting pretty at 98.7% (Which should put an end to all the talk of the ChiSox blowing the lead in the Central.  I’ll go ahead and say it.  They’ll limp in, flirting with losing the lead to the Indians, and then bow out so quietly you’ll think they all grew up in a library.).  And nobody is as solid as my Redbirds, a 100% mortal lock to make the playoffs… and a slightly more tenuous 99.9% favorite to take the Central. 

Are the calculations accurate?  Well, according to them, the Orioles are out of contention, so how bad could they be? 

Actually, they seem to really cover their bases, giving fans a choice of two types of standings- "smart" and "dumb" (love that!).  Rather than type out the explanation, I’ll give you the link:  http://www.coolstandings.com/welcome.asp.

To paraphrase, "dumb" mode assumes a 50/50 chance of one team beating another, no matter who the teams are, while "smart" mode takes into consideration all those Sabermetricesque stats that are creepily accurate and interesting.  That explains why, despite being tied in the NL West this morning, the Dodgers have an 11.8% of winning the division, while the Diamondbacks are slogging along at 2.9%.  By most measurements, the Dodgers are a less terrible team, have 2 games in hand on Arizona, and a slightly easier schedule and an extra game against the Pads. 

(Editor’s Note:  I could be miles off in my understanding of why the computer says the Dodgers have a better shot.  I’m just making assumptions.  Thought I’d put that out there…)

Even more fun is to go back in time, and see how the standings have evolved (for example, on August 10 the ChiSox were 99.5% near locks to take the Central, and while the lead has shrunk considerably, it’s interesting to note that the percentage hasn’t since the pool of games is also smaller).  Who’s made big progress, who hasn’t? 

Anyway, it’s a fun site, pretty interesting.  Check it out if you get a chance.  After all, it’s always good to know if you really need to start putting money aside for playoff tickets. 

St. Louisans can save with impunity. 

I was planning on doing this whole deal where I’d rank the prospects of every potential playoff team (even the ones on the fringes) to win the World Series, but then I realized I’d have to spend too much time on the rest of the NL West (for example, the Giants out of necessity mind you, have been forced to print playoff tickets on the odd chance they make it to the top of the division.  They’re 15 games under .500 and 7 games out… and management was right.  The division is so bad that one 15-3 streak could have them at the top.  I can’t focus energy on that sort of division). 

So in a nutshell, here it is:  Everyone has issues, and there’s no team I see as a dominating force heading into the playoffs.  There are some teams that won’t make it anyway, so analyzing their chances is a waste: Washington (sad but true), the Dodgers (though they could be interesting for the rest of the year, just for different reasons), Toronto (wait until next year, when the money starts flowing!), Milwaukee (am I the last one to notice they’re somehow only 5.5 back in the wild card?), NY Mets (weakest pitching staff among the NL Wild Card contenders, especially if Pedro pitches every 6th day, plus too many injuries on O), Minnesota (too little O, even if they’ve got a good staff)…

…and the New York Yankees (I’m not buying what Jared Wright is selling, Randy Johnson finally seems 42. Everything about them this year screams "something is just wrong enough for us to make the playoffs.")

If I were a playoff team, I’d be scared of Houston, Florida, and Oakland in the 1st round, just because on any given night the one run they score might be enough to win.  As for Cleveland, the way their staff is coming together, they’re not far behind in that group, and they have more mash potential than any of the other three.  All four teams could make noise in the playoffs.

As for division leaders, the last 2 weeks have shown the White Sox are vulnerable, the Red variety still have major pitching staff issues, The Cardinals batted So Taguchi in the cleanup spot due to injuries, and the Angels, outside of Vlad and Figgins, have some dead spots in their lineup.  All in all, it’s pretty wide open.  (I’m still sticking to Red Sox vs. Cards in the World Series)

But forget all that.  While I was trying to find the dirt on those teams, I missed yesterday’s most important news:  Julio Franco turned 6000.  Okay, 47, but still… 47!  I play in a Sunday men’s 28 and over hardball league, and there aren’t that many dudes in that league that are 47.  And he’s still productive.  Plenty of teams would take what he’s given Atlanta this season- 9 HR, 40 RBI, .298 in only 188 AB’s. 

I’ll forgive myself for not remembering that Franco broke in with Philly in ’82 as a shortstop (a freakin’ shortstop!), because I was not even 7 when it happened.  There’s a lot I don’t remember about the early days of the Reagan administration, too.  Plus, the dude got his first hit of Bob Forsch.  Bob Forsch, who incidently was my brother’s favorite player… when he was 12!  Nobody currently active in the majors should have gotten their first base knock off Bob Forsch.  Joanie Loves Chachi was still on tv.  Really, everything I currently watch for kitch value on TV Land was actually on the air in 1982. 

I do remember when he won a batting title (and stole 36 bases!) at age 32 in 1991… go ahead and get a handle on the math for that one for a minute. 

Julio says he wants to play until he’s 50.  Personally, I believe if there are still jobs for Carlos Baerga and most of the San Francisco Giants roster, there’s plenty of room for this guy over the next 3 years.  Honestly, I want him to play until he’s 500.  And he might.  After all, if he were a lefthanded reliever, he could play forever.

So happy belated birthday Julio!  Keep up the good work.

I was going to kick off today’s entry making fun of the Royals by describing all the things that have happened to me and the world since they last won a game (because really, who wouldn’t want to know exactly what I’ve been up to?).  But the problem is, I can’t rememeber what I was doing on Wednesday, July 27, when a 6-5 victory over the White Sox capped off a hot streak of 4 wins in 6 games, and pulled the Royals tantilizingly close in the AL Central (those 18 game losing streaks will knock you back a ways…)

Unfortunately, the cold slap of reality is… I have no idea what I was doing on the 27th, or most of the days after that.   Of course, I doubt the Royals do, either.  What’s interesting to me is the psychology of the whole thing.  The Royals have been terrible all year, with fits and starts of competence thrown in here and there just to keep things interesting.  I doubt from a baseball standpoint they’ve been substantially worse during this stretch than they have over any 18 game stretch earlier in the year.  They’ve lost some heartbreakers (including 7 games by 1 or 2 runs) and some laughers (a 16-1 blowout followed by an 11-0 pasting at home against Oakland). 

The rest have been typical Royals games.  They just lose, and nobody really notices because that’s what they’re supposed to do.  How many people do you think paid attention to this streak until it reached double digits?  "The Royals have lost six in a row" sounds eerily similar to "the sun rose in the east this morning" in the pantheon of attention grabbing statements.  Now, "Kansas City has won five in a row!" is likely to cause panic along the lines of yelling "Fire!" in a crowded theater.  Five in a row?  That’s when you start checking the skies for rolling clouds and shrouded guys on horseback. 

I’d love to have been in the clubhouse, too, on the day the Royals realized they had something special going.  Was it at 10 games?  14?  Is there even a little bit of pride in what they’re doing?  Assuming everyone is trying their best and not tanking- though with KC’s roster, it might be hard to tell the difference- it’s almost impossible for a major league team, or even a AAA team playing against major leaguers, to lose 18 games in a row.  You win one on accident.  The other team kicks the ball around.  Five flares fall in for base hits, which combined with 2 wild pitches give your team 3 cheap runs.  On Sportscenter, people talk about how bad the other team was, and how they lost the game.  Your squad had nothing to do with it.  To me, it’s amazing the Royals haven’t had one of those yet.  18 games in a row.  That’s pretty impressive. 

Just as a capper, Rob Neyer wrote in his column for ESPN.com that he doesn’t think the Royals could lose the rest of their games and finish with 124 losses.  But wouldn’t it be cool if they did?  If you’re gonna ****, ********. 

You can make an arguement that the Royals are finally taking pride in what they do.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the state… 

Mark Mulder’s shutout of the D-Backs last night has me smiling.  Every time he pitches well, it makes me think the Cards have that much more of a shot to take the series.  Walker is on his way back, as is Reggie Sanders.  There’s no need to rush.  As long as both get a couple weeks worth of AB’s before the playoffs, all will be well with them.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Scott Rolen.  It’s never a good sign when after about three months of rehab and inactivity (with 87 AB’s tossed in between) a body part actually seems to be getting worse, not better.  That’s the deal with Rolen.  According to the Post Dispatch online, there’s now a good chance Rolen could miss the rest of the season and the postseason.  If I had to make a prediction, I’d say he’s done.  I just don’t think they’d speak in these terms unless they knew.  Every quote sounds like the speaker is holding out hope, but you can almost sense the tone, quiet and with head hung as if talking about a terminally sick relative. 

That means the Cards are in the Abraham Nunez business.  Dude’s been amazing, but having to use him in the every day lineup makes the Cards significantly weaker.  Even if Rolen can’t hit, he saves games with his glove.  Nunez isn’t a hack, but he won’t do much of that.  Plus, when he’s on the bench, the whole team is stronger.  And we all remember what seemed to happen to the Cards the last time Rolen missed the playoffs.  Ugliness.

Maybe there’s something out there, where Walt Jocketty can make a waiver deal for some help.  Even if it just bolsters the bench, hefting up the spot vacated by Nunez when he moved into the lineup.  Something.  Anything.  Just so I can sleep a little easier, you know?   

Growing up in St. Louis, the closest I ever got to watching Gene Mauch was the ’86 ALCS, the one that forever linked Dave Henderson to Donnie Moore and tragedy.  I remember watching that game and that series.  Around September 15 of every season I about the Cardinals team that caught Mauch’s Phillies, overcoming a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 games left.  I never met him, spoke to him, covered a team that played one of his, or (outside of the playoffs or occasional Game of the Week), watched his teams play on tv.  I couldn’t tell you a word about his managerial style outside of what I’ve read today in articles honoring his life.

But I know who he is, I know what he did, and though it was in the tiniest of ways, his life overlapped with mine. 

Baseball is a long game.  It’s history is long, it’s season is long, it’s games are long.  That length can be a curse, as anyone who has suffered through an August game in Tampa can tell you.  But that same length gives the game what makes it most special.  Context and history.  My brother (ak.mlblogs.com) has never been the baseball fan that I have.  I played the game longer and more often than he did, I’ve always taken stats more seriously.  Honestly, I can’t remember ever seeing him hold a baseball card (Recently, I found a pile of cards I’d set aside as potential winners down the road.  Seriously, I must have saved every freakin’ rookie card on the planet, no matter how useless.  I had four Van Snyder rookie cards.  Van Snyder doesn’t have four Van Snyder rookie cards).  But he still signpost the 80′s based on what the Cardinals were doing and who was on the team.  That and which John Hughes movie came out that year. 

Length is what allows the game to wind itself into the national fabric the way it does.  It’s what allows broadcasters to tell stories to fans, fathers to tell stories to their kids.  Every 15 second gap between pitches is a chance to learn about a player.  Every minute and a half between innings is a chance to learn about a season.  Time enough to teach someone to keep the book.  Length is what makes a boring game in May exciting in October.  It’s what makes baseball often more interesting to talk about as in intellectual exercise than watch on tv.  All at once length is why no sport will ever be so fundamental a part of American life and why kids seem to be leaving it at the same time.  Take a kid to a hockey game.  They may get hooked on the sport- there isn’t a better one to watch- but they won’t sense the history.  There’s no time to explain it. 

Congratulations to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have surfed the wave of a two game winning streak into first place in the NL West.  That’s right, your 52-55 Arizona Diamondbacks have zoomed past the San Diego Padres, and if the playoffs started today (which would be totally unfair, actually) they’d be off to St. Louis to face the Cardinals in the Wild Card.

If the NL West were a network sitcom, it would be cancelled.  If it were a politician, it would be impeached.  If it were a cockroach– well, actually, it may be a cockroach.  Nobody wants to see it, it doesn’t do much good for anyone, and you’d just as soon step on it and put the **** thing out if its misery.  How bad is it?  The Pads won 8 times in July, and lost a grand total of 2 games on the Dodgers, and 4 on the Giants.  Only the D-Backs, who cobbled together a *******’ 13 win month, managed to make up a bunch of ground.

Really, in what other division could the Giants, at 14 games under .500, make a deadline deal (acquiring Randy Winn from the M’s for a clubhouse subscription to FHM), with the idea of making a run at the division… and actually have a chance of making it work?  Pretend for a minute you were one of the teams in the NL East, where nobody is currently under .500.  Never before has every team in a division won more than they’ve lost.  You’re part of history.  Great!  One look out west would make you want to pull a Ron Artest.  It’s the NL East in Bizarro World. Omar Minaya must be freaking out.  All that money on Pedro and Beltran?  What they should have done was save their cash and move to Portland.   

Maybe I’m just angry because the Padres, with their fantastic June that set me up to look smart for thinking they’d be good, and set them up to leave the rest of the division in the rear view mirror, have lied to me. 

Even the Royals must be annoyed.  They’re actually one game better than the Rockies, but are a full 30 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central.  Colorado, meanwhile, has won barely a third of their games, and if they managed to rip off 9 of 11, 11 of 13 (stop laughing!) they’d be right back in it.  That’s just stupid.

But, then again, so is the NL West. 

In through the nose, out through the mouth.  In through the nose, out through the mouth…

There are times when being a writer can get you in trouble, where the creativity you (god willing) possess can work against you. 

This is one of those times. 

The Cards- my Cards, the best team in the NL and possibly in baseball (do we really buy the White Sox?  For sure?  Gun to the head, put your money on the table, are you taking the pale hose?  Carl Everett doesn’t believe in gays, and I don’t believe in the Sox) currently sit 10 1/2 games up in the NL Central.  They have one of the two or three best starting staffs in baseball, arguably the best.  They’re solid defensively, pure professionals, and play with only one goal- to win the World Series. 

They’re also more beat up than Mike Tyson.

Seriously, when the Dodgers look at you saying, "Man, they’ve got some serious injury problems," you know it’s out of control.  Molina, Sanders, Rolen, and now Walker are all on the DL.  Edmonds has missed some time, and really needs to rest every fifth day if he’s going to be healthy for the playoffs.  Even Albert Pujols needs a breather.  That’s like saying the Terminator could use a day off, but it seems to be the case (that stretch where he played left field with one arm- two years ago, I believe- made many of us forget he was human). 

So now the Redbirds, who had suspicious OF depth to begin with, have all hands on deck trying to get through this stretch, with a lineup that went from fantasy gold to fantasy "When did Tony Graffanino get in my lineup?" level.  Meanwhile, the Astros (who I believe I buried a couple months ago- my bad!) have won 198 consecutive games, and are right back in the thick of things, as far as the Wild Card goes.  And here’s where the imagination kicks in.  With their current problems, it’s not out of the question for the Cards to limp along at .500, or even a slightly lower clip, for the next 20 games or so.  One more injury could make that even worse.  Now if Houston continues playing .667 or better over their next 60 games- very tough, yes, but not hard to picture the way they’ve been going- that’ll eat up the cushion pretty quick. 

If nobody were playing well in the division, I wouldn’t worry.  Let Sanders, Walker, and Rolen sit until September 1, give them a month to get back in shape, and we’re all good to go for October.  Now what I have is the same feeling I get when I’m flying.  I sit down, the plane takes off, and then every bump makes me think I’m auditioning for the 2nd season of Lost, except I know I’ll be one of the guys ****** out the back of the plane because only models and former hobbits were allowed to get on that island.  My brain tells me everything is fine, that I have a better chance of being struck by lightning in sunny SoCal than I do dying in a plane crash.

But there’s always that overactive imagination.  So while it should be a smooth ride into October, I’m gonna leave my seat belt fastened, my seat back up, and my tray table stowed.  Just in case it gets a little bumpy. 

It’s deadline season, and the big prize- at least among the players with a real chance of going anywhere- is AJ Burnett.  Sure, he’s good, but as the top guy out there, he’ll come at a high price and may bring along big salaried Mike Lowell with him.  If I’m the Sox, is he a guy who would make me want to give up Bronson Arroyo and a couple of prospects?  Straight up, sure, but would you overpay?  Is he the difference maker, or is this a deal done more for appearance?  Danys Baez could help some teams, but I’m always suspicious of relievers on bad teams.  Billy Wagner would be great, but will the Phillies move him?  I’d take a flier on Tom Glavine if I really needed an arm, but I wouldn’t give up much to do it (and the Mets would have to toss in some cash). 

In short, the trade market is nearly as appealing as Hoth in winter.  Cold, threatening, full of creatures trying to inflict damage, and with little potential for growth.   

So here’s what I propose.  Forget looking in conventional markets.  Teams have needs, they should think outside the box and try to fill them.  So with that in mind, here are my propositions for teams in need:

Washington- When your GM is trying to talk Barry Larkin out of retirement, that’s bad.  Very, very bad.  Despite the Preston Wilson deal, the Nats still need O if their improbable run to the playoffs is going to pan out.  If you believe the Reds and Adam Dunn isn’t available, there are no really big sticks out there, but there is plenty of offense.  My recommendations?  Vinnie "The Microwave" Johnson, of former Pistons fame.  He was my favorite growing up, mostly because I thought "Microwave" was a really cool nickname.  Dude was instant offense.   Or, if nothing else, pry T.O. off the Eagles.  Failing that, maybe Howard Stern.  Lord knows plenty of people in Washington find him offensive.

NY Yankees- Cano and Wang put them on the right track, but they still need youth, and they need it bad.  Picking up Al Leiter, while a no risk move, doesn’t exactly address that problem.  My choice?  Sammi Kraft, star of the "Bad News Bears" remake.  She throws a legit 70 mph with movement, brings a Michelle Wie excitement to the roster, and because she’s only 13 or so, Sammi could singlehandedly bring down the average age on the Yanks roster to 84.4.  And now that I’m thinking about it, do you think Michelle Wie could hit a curveball?

Chicago White Sox- This one is tricky.  what does the team with the baseball’s best record need?  And don’t say one more starter or a dominating closer.  Please.  They need to make a trade for some respect.  Think about it.  The Sox are better than any team in baseball, and they’re way better than the Cubs.  Still, the Cubs pack Wrigley at 98.2%, while the Sox can barely manage to keep US Cellular 2/3 full.  That’s weak, and why St. Louis fans are better.  If the Browns were in first place, people would show up.  Can you actually trade for human beings on the street?  Don’t know.  But Kenny Williams is a smart guy.  I’d say that Vizcaino, Contrares, and a player to be named for 50,000 or so of Chicagoland’s finest baseball fans ought to do it. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________ 

Finally, not that he needs my help, but I’d like to finish by plugging the blog of ESPN’s Buster Olney.  If you, by chance, have never read it (why, why, why are you not?), not only does he give solid insight into the world of MLB, but best of all, Olney sets up links to articles around the country, allowing easy access to good stories from cities you probably don’t live in.  Excellent stuff and a great resource for all fans.

http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/magazine/magBlog?id=1961791

-First, to my Cardinals who put a smackdown on previously-red-hot Astros, putting the kabosh on any division hopes (far fetched as they might have been) with a sweep in St. Louis this weekend.  If Houston had done the same, they’d have trimmed the Cardinals lead to 8.5.  Probably not close enough to do damage, but enough to get the Baseball Tonight crew talking… at least for a minute or two. 

-In four years of high school football, I don’t think I ever executed a perfect form tackle.  I have now seen Kyle Farnsworth do it twice as a major league pitcher.  That’s pretty impressive.

-To Al Leiter, for briefly solving the Yankees pitching woes and pulling them to within a 1/2 game of the Sox.  While I don’t think Leiter is a long term answer, I’m impressed the Yankees managed to pull off a no-brainer acquisition.  For a nothing risker than couple million, they can find out if Leiter still has something in the tank.  If I had to guess, he’s got a few quality starts left in him, but a few more pastings.  I can’t see why he’d move to the AL and start mowing through opposing lineups.  But the guy was good in the past, and with Wang, Pavano, and Brown on the DL, it’s not like the pinstripes have a ton of options (Henn?  Redding?  May?).  No harm no foul.

      Either way, it’s becoming clear that neither the Sox nor the Yankees are the favorites in the AL.  That the Sox, with the Yankees scuffling all year and only 8 games above .500, haven’t opened a bigger lead doesn’t exactly inspire confidence (Maybe I’m just worried because I recently predicted a Sox/Cards rematch- with a happier ending for me- in a recent interview and column).

-The Arizona Diamondbacks, who have somehow managed to stay competitive enough to make the NL West interesting in a Surgery Channel way.  It’s gross, but oddly compelling.  Yesterday’s win in San Diego puts them 5 1/2 out.  ****, even the Dodgers, baseball’s answer to the Surgery Channel, still have a shot.  This reminds me of the old Norris Division in hockey, without the violence. 

People aren’t watching the All Star Game anymore.

Shocker.

The Nielsons are out for Tuesday’s extravaganza in Motown, and the news wasn’t good for Bud Selig, or Fox Sports for that matter, as viewership was down about 8%.  That’s 8% worse than the record low viewership of last season’s game.  And I’m one of those fans that has stopped tuning in.  Granted, this year it was work that kept me from watching all but the first couple innings (I was covering a bunch of the pre-ESPY hoopla), but honestly, if I were home I probably wouldn’t have watched.  Or at least not very closely.  Why? 

All Star games are lame. 

The only one that really comes close to being good is the NBA version.  Lots of scoring, a bunch of flash, and serious athleticism on display.  It’s a time to show off, and the players take full advantage.  Hockey (remember hockey?) isn’t bad, but as a former stay at home defenseman for whom a hat trick was a yearly goal total I find no joy in watching the world’s best defensemen ole the world’s best forwards so they can use the world’s best goalies for target practice. 

The NFL, of course, has the Pro Bowl, a glorified touch football game played in uniforms that make those threads the White Sox wore with the collars and shorts look like pure GQ. 

Allowing myself to skip over the WNBA All Star Game- did you know it just happened?- that leaves MLB.  While there’s no question that the cockeyed plan to make the game matter (I’ve railed against the home field advantage thing too many times to do it again), or Fox’s insistence that it does ("This time, it counts," or whatever the tagline is), the fact remains that Tuesday’s game, like all other All Star games, don’t.  They just don’t matter.  That Miguel Tejada sent a John Smoltz pitch into orbit in an exhibition game was fun to see, but it’s not like it means that Tejada has Smoltz’s number, or will dominate him if they should meet in the Series (which they won’t). 

The game itself is pretty boring.  There’s no flow, as in basketball or hockey, and the constant lineup and pitching changes make it impossible to get a bead on what’s going on in the game and if by some miracle it has any real meaning.  Now, a ten game series between the All Star teams, played straight up with reserves, relievers, and starters who actually throw starters innings?  That I’d watch.  It would be a series of 10 TiVO moments of the highest quality. 

The irony is that the process for picking the teams- debating who deserves to go and who doesn’t, who should start on the mound, etc.- all that is great.  It gets into all the arguements that make baseball great.  Who has the better stats?  How much do stats mean?  Should past accomplishments be a factor?   Who, really, are the best players in baseball?  Honestly, if they just had a voting process and selected a team but never played the game, I’d be fine, as would a growing percentage of my fellow Americans, if you believe TV ratings.

I’m not entirely sure what I predicted at the beginning of the season.  I don’t remember writing anything down, and if I did, I can’t figure out where I put the paper.  So I may not be able to make any of those bold, "You may remember that I predicted __________, and you can see I was exactly right!"  Or at least not accurately.   

Like that’ll stop me.

WHAT I PREDICTED AND HOW I DID:

Things I got right-

The Cardinals would run away with the Central- This one I’m sure about, and not because I make the same that every year (although there are times- say most of the early 90′s- when I didn’t believe it).  And I said it before I knew for sure that the Cubs pitching staff would disappear faster than Skeet Ulrich.  In fairness, it was also before I knew Derrick Lee would somehow channel the spirit of Babe Ruth, so I’m calling it a wash. 

The Padres would win the West- Hey, look what one good month in the NL west will do!  .500 the rest of the way could very well be enough for San Diego to take the division.  Unfortunately for those of for whom geography means we face constant exposure to this train wreck of a division (worse than the NL Central.  Think about that)  .450 the rest of the way could win it as well. 

The Angels would take the West- Vlad, Bartolo, Erstad, G.A., K-Rod, Washburn.  Toss in solid performances by Paul Byrd (got that right!), and a good enough John Lackey, and this one is like shooting fish in a barrell.  Imagine how good they’ll be when Cabrera and Finley start playing like Cabrera and Finley.

Things I’m pretty sure I got wrong-

What’s the deal with the Florida Marlins?-  I mean, seriously, what is the deal with the Florida Marlins?

Did I pick Boston or the Yankees to win the East?-  Honestly, I don’t remember.  It’s not that I’m unwilling to admit when I’m wrong (Seriously, what is the deal with the Florida Marlins?), I just can’t figure out what I predicted.  The good news is I know that I said whoever didn’t win the division would take the AL Wild Card.  Because I’m a sports journalist who’s willing to go out on a limb and make bold preseason predictions.

The Chicago White Sox have screwed everything up-  After a slow start, the Indians are finally showing me the love that I was giving them at the beginning of the season.  Except there was nothing in my crystal ball that said Jon Garland, and Dustin Hermanson would sell their souls to Satan, and the Sox would be 9 million games up on the Tribe.  In fact, it’s very possible the entire team has put their afterlife on the open market.  Nobody in the regular lineup is hitting over .300.  They’ve only had a couple real run producers for most of the year- although Frank Thomas’ return seems to be helping in that regard, and Carl Everett apparently doesn’t believe in ***********.  Or homosexual dinosaurs, for that matter.  That’s an unusual recipe for success.   

What I know I got wrong- 

The Washington Nationals- Yeah, I thought the Nats could finish .500 (actually documented on this site!), but 16 games over .500 at the break?  Still, it’s really cool to be wrong sometimes. 

The Dodgers would be competitive-  Of course, I didn’t know Dodger Stadium had it’s own fleet of black cats and broken mirrors, either. 

Houston would ****- That one looked good for a while. 

The Rockies would win the World Series-  Just kidding. 

Next time- My Fearless 2nd Half Predictions!!!!!